Lightning re-acquire defenseman from Predators

The Lightning have re-acquired defenseman Ryan McDonagh from the Predators via trade, the team announced Tuesday. Tampa is picking up the Oilers’ 2024 fourth-round pick in the deal and sending their 2025 second-round pick and 2024 seventh-round pick to Nashville in return.

It’s incredibly unusual timing for a swap, especially one of this significance. Both the Bolts’ and Preds’ seasons ended a few weeks ago in first-round playoff exits.

There was no previous indication McDonagh was on the trade block, but he’ll now finish out the last two seasons of his seven-year, $6.75M AAV contract back in Tampa, where he signed it in 2018. The Predators are not retaining salary in the deal — an important factor for the Lightning as they attempt to keep captain Steven Stamkos, a pending unrestricted free agent, from going to market.

McDonagh, who was part of the Lightning’s three straight Stanley Cup Final appearances from 2020 to 2022, spent the last two seasons in Nashville after the Lightning couldn’t afford to keep his contract on the books. They traded him to the Preds in July 2022 for minor-league pieces Grant Mismash and Philippe Myers. Mismash never suited up for Tampa and is now playing in Norway, while Myers has logged 16 appearances for the Bolts in the last two seasons.

It’s hard to argue with the asset management here from Predators general manager Barry Trotz. McDonagh gave them two seasons of solid top-four minutes, averaging 21:40 per game over 145 contests. He isn’t the player he once was offensively, but he still put up a respectable 52 points in a Nashville uniform and a combined +31 rating, which leads Nashville skaters since 2022-23. Trotz also nets a second-round pick for his troubles.

McDonagh’s contract has a full no-trade clause, which he waived to return to Tampa. The Lightning have struggled defensively without him the past two seasons, going from a consistent top-10 team in goals against to 14th in 2022-23 and 22nd this season. They also haven’t managed to win a playoff series since trading him away, losing to the Panthers in the first round this season and the Maple Leafs last year. While trading him away did allow GM Julien BriseBois to sign the younger Erik Černák, Anthony Cirelli and Mikhail Sergachev to long-term extensions, it didn’t result in a continuation of their success from the beginning of the decade.

The veteran defenseman turns 35 next month and is entering his 15th NHL season. Formerly the captain of the Rangers, the Lightning initially acquired McDonagh, along with J.T. Miller, in a blockbuster trade at the 2018 deadline. McDonagh played parts of five seasons in Tampa before ending up in Nashville, putting up 99 points and a +74 rating in 267 games in a Lightning uniform while averaging 21:51 per game.

However, re-acquiring McDonagh doesn’t mean the Lightning are in a more advantageous cap situation than when they traded him away. They’re down to just over $5M in projected cap space next season with a roster size of 18, per CapFriendly, likely not enough to re-sign Stamkos without a corresponding move.

Evolving Hockey projects Stamkos could earn close to $8.5M annually on a short-term deal on the open market, and while he’s likely willing to take a hometown discount to stay in Tampa, a contract worth less than half his market value would be extreme. They also have a couple of other depth forward spots to fill to ice a full roster, and none of their minor-league forwards are particularly strong candidates to crack next fall’s opening-night roster.

After trading away their 2025 second-rounder in this deal, the Lightning now don’t have a pick in the first two rounds until 2026. That’s a tough sell for an aging core, considering they have a bottom-five prospect pool in the league, as analyzed by The Athletic’s Scott Wheeler.

Meanwhile, Trotz frees up some significant cap space to allow Nashville to be slightly more aggressive in free agency. The buyout penalty for Matt Duchene increases by $3M on July 1 to a $5.55M price tag next season, eating into their offseason flexibility. After moving McDonagh, CapFriendly now projects the Preds with $26M in space next season with a roster size of 15. That’s more than enough to go big-game hunting for a younger, more cost-controlled replacement for McDonagh on the open market this summer.