NHL odds, preview, prediction: Oilers vs. Canucks Game 7 for Mon. 5/20

Oilers vs. Canucks Odds

Monday, May 20, 9 p.m. ET, ESPN & ESPN+

Odds via Betfred. Get up-to-the-minute NHL odds here.

Edmonton Oilers

The Oilers have been a dominant offensive force throughout the season and have maintained their high standards in the playoffs. They ranked third in Corsi % during the regular season, reflecting their strong puck possession and shot generation. In the playoffs, they rank sixth out of the 16 teams, showcasing a slight dip but still indicating solid control of the game.

Their expected goals percentage (xG%) was the best in the league during the regular season, and they have retained this top spot in the playoffs, underlining their ability to create high-quality scoring opportunities.

In terms of Expected Goals For (xGF), the Oilers led the league in the regular season and currently rank third in the playoffs. This metric highlights their consistent offensive pressure and ability to capitalize on scoring chances.

Additionally, they led the league in high-danger chances during the regular season and have continued to dominate in this area in the playoffs, continuing to rank as the best. Their power play has been a significant strength with the Oilers ranking fifth in power-play goals during the regular season and first in the playoffs.

Defensively, the Oilers have shown some vulnerabilities. They ranked ninth in Expected Goals Against (xGA) during the regular season and have slipped to tenth in the playoffs. This slight decline indicates that while their defense is solid, it has been tested more rigorously in the postseason – as to be expected facing the best teams in the league. Edmonton's ability to limit high danger chances has also seen a drop, from fifth in the regular season to 14th in the playoffs.

Their penalty kill, however, has been impressive. The Oilers were 14th in penalty kill goals allowed during the regular season but have improved significantly in the playoffs, ranking third with the fewest shorthanded goals allowed.

Goaltender Stuart Skinner has had a challenging postseason, ranking 17th out of 25 playoff goalies in GAA (Goals Against Average) and 23rd in goals saved above expected. His performance will be crucial in determining the outcome of Game 7.

Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks have shown remarkable offensive depth this season. They ranked 10th in Corsi % during the regular season and have maintained a decent 12th position out of 16 teams in the playoffs.

Their xG% was seventh in the regular season, and they have held this position in the playoffs, indicating consistent performance in generating quality scoring chances against both the Oilers and Nashville Predators.

The Canucks' Expected Goals For (xGF) was 16th in the regular season, but they have significantly improved to eighth in the playoffs. This uptick suggests they have found a higher gear in the postseason.

They also ranked sixth in high-danger chances during the regular season and eighth in the playoffs, showing their ability to create dangerous scoring opportunities. Their power play has been effective, ranking 11th in power-play goals during the regular season and eighth in the playoffs.

Defensively, the Canucks have faced challenges. They were seventh in xGA during the regular season but have dropped to 12th in the playoffs. This decline suggests that their defense has been under greater pressure in the postseason. With two of the top offenses in the league in Nashville and Edmonton, it is to be expected, however, especially without their top netminder in Thatcher Demko.

Vancouver’s ability to limit high-danger chances has improved, however, with the team ranking 18th during the regular season and now 10th in the playoffs.

Their penalty kill has struggled, ranking 12th best in penalty kill allowed during the regular season and have now allowed the fifth most shorthanded goals in the playoffs. Goaltender Arturs Silovs has had mixed results, ranking 10th out of 15 playoff goalies in GAA and save percentage above expected. However, considering his fill-in role for their elite netminder in Demko, it is to be expected. His performance in Game 7 will be pivotal for the Canucks' chances.

Oilers vs. Canucks

Betting Pick & Prediction

Considering the statistical insights and the dynamics of the series, the recommended bet for Monday night's game is the Oilers Moneyline at -155 odds.

Here’s why:

1. Offensive firepower: The Oilers' consistent ability to generate high-quality scoring chances and their top-ranked power play make them a formidable offensive force. Against a backup like Silovs, they will inevitably break him and secure 3+ goals in a high-pressure Game 7 scenario.
2. Defensive adjustments: While the Oilers have shown some defensive vulnerabilities, their improved penalty kill and the overall depth of their roster provide a balanced approach.

In a high-stakes Game 7 scenario, the Oilers' blend of offensive prowess and strategic adjustments gives them the edge. Betting on the Oilers leverages their superior metrics and recent performance trends, making it a sound choice for this decisive matchup.

At the time of this writing, Betfred has the best odds for the Oilers moneyline at -150. BetMGM has -155 available, and most other sportsbooks are now at -160 or shorter.

Pick: Oilers (-150 at Betfred)